The whole track record.
Every slice, including misses.
Every prediction — across all markets — scored on the real close-to-close move, broken down by horizon, confidence, sector, region, model and regime. Calibration, risk-adjusted returns and platform discipline included. No cherry-picking.
95% confidence interval: 52.6%–53.7% · All markets
The trust funnel
From every attempt to the calls we scored — nothing hidden, every stage counted.
Accuracy over time
Rolling 7-day directional accuracy vs the 50% coin-flip line — All markets.
By horizon
Bullish vs bearish
Walk-forward accuracy
Accuracy on the most recent N days only — is recent live performance holding up?
Does confidence mean anything?
Actual hit-rate by the model’s own confidence bucket — higher confidence should mean higher accuracy.
| Confidence | Predictions | Actual accuracy | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low (50-60%) | 3,837 | 49.0% | +6.0pp |
| Medium (60-70%) | 14,847 | 51.6% | +13.3pp |
| High (70-80%) | 5,229 | 55.2% | +19.8pp |
| Very High (80-90%) | 145 | 49.0% | +36.0pp |
| Extreme (90%+) | 6,349 | 57.5% | +38.0pp |
Risk-adjusted returns
Measured on the disciplined book — the signals we actually commit to after the confidence gate, not every raw signal. This is the money-weighted edge.
Returns by horizon (holding-period)
How a user actually experiences it: hold from the call to its horizon. Sharpe here is annualized the correct way — per-trade × √(252 / horizon-days), not a calendar-year compound.
| Horizon | n | Avg hold return | Sharpe (holding-period) | Win rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 20,396 | +0.001% | 0.00 | 36.9% |
| 5d | 19,307 | +0.463% | 0.47 | 46.5% |
| 7d | 16,127 | +0.570% | 0.52 | 47.4% |
| 10d | 11,906 | +0.752% | 0.43 | 48.5% |
| 15d | 12,415 | +0.429% | 0.19 | 49.5% |
| 20d | 9,504 | +0.164% | 0.06 | 46.1% |
| 25d | 7,159 | -0.598% | -0.17 | 43.6% |
| 30d | 2,060 | +0.115% | 0.03 | 46.8% |
Trade funnel
By asset class
By region
By sector
By model
By market regime
volatility · trendBest tracked
Worst tracked
— shown honestlyDiscipline & coverage
We only commit to a call when confident — and abstain on the rest. Coverage is deliberately low; precision is the point.
How we measure
Directional
Right if the price moves the way we said by the horizon. Unambiguous, checkable.
Close-to-close
Official closes at the horizon date — not intraday ticks we could pick to flatter.
No look-ahead
Locked before the outcome window opens. Out-of-sample, every time.
Calibrated
Each call ships a probability, measured to actually track hit-rate.
The record is the proof. Now see the picks.
Today’s high-conviction calls for Crypto.